Reading the forecast archive.
How the forecast came in
Every HRRR run for one buoy, and what the buoy measured. Pick an hour to see each run's forecast for it.
Buoy
observed at the buoy, raised to 10 m
HRRR runs (paler is older)
the hour shown in the panel
HRRR says this: what do the buoys see?
Hours ahead
Grouped by the forecast, not by the observation, which would show regression to the mean.
The error barely grows with lead time
Measure
Buoy
The last 30 days, buoy by buoy
Hours ahead